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One Company, Many Prices: How to Evaluate Deals

In the public markets, finding a company’s stock price is as simple as checking a ticker symbol. Prices may fluctuate slightly throughout the day, but at any given moment, there’s a clear, widely accepted price based on active trading.

In the private markets, it’s not that simple.

Take any late-stage company, and you’ll find its shares priced differently across multiple platforms. One marketplace might list shares at $30, while another has transactions closing at $45. In some cases, investors see pricing spreads of 50% or more—all for the same company, on the same day.

Why does this happen?

Private market pricing is shaped by more than just supply and demand. The structure of a deal, the type of shares being sold, block sizes, and even the urgency of a seller all influence the final transaction price. Because private company shares don’t trade on a centralized exchange, investors must rely on a fragmented mix of secondary marketplaces, brokers, and one-off transactions—each with its own pricing quirks.

To see this in action, let’s look at Cerebras Systems, a company nearing an IPO, and how its secondary market pricing varies across different platforms. If any company should have a relatively stable valuation, it’s a late-stage AI hardware firm with a strong funding history. Yet, as we’ll see, even Cerebras has wildly different prices depending on where you look.

A Case Study: Cerebras as of February 17, 2025

Cerebras Systems, a late-stage AI hardware company, is nearing an IPO. With a well-established track record, multiple funding rounds, and active secondary market trading, you’d think pricing its shares would be straightforward. And yet, the data tells a different story—depending on where you look, the price per share varies significantly.

This inconsistency illustrates a fundamental reality of private market investing: there is no single “right” price. Instead, pricing is shaped by deal structures, liquidity conditions, and the parties involved in the transaction. To see this in action, let’s compare how different platforms are valuing Cerebras on February 17, 2025.

Forge

Forge, one of the leading secondary platforms, lists Cerebras shares at $36.72 per share using its proprietary “Forge Price” as of February 17. According to Forge, this price is “a proprietary indicative price, calculated daily, that serves as an indicator of the most current price per share of a company based on a combination of secondary market transactions, recent funding rounds, and indications of interest on Forge.”

This calculation explains why the price is lower than the $41.00 last closed trade price from October 2024, yet still significantly higher than the $14.66 per share valuation from the company’s last funding round in September 2024.

EquityZen

EquityZen lists multiple transactions, with implied share prices ranging from $39.00 to $57.00 per share, depending on deal type and block size.

This is a huge spread, all within a single platform. Unlike Forge, EquityZen does not provide a proprietary pricing metric, which raises the question: Why is the price range so wide?

Hiive

Hiive’s data aggregates various secondary market trades and indications of interest, showing an average price of $39.16 per share—slightly higher than Forge, but within the lower range of EquityZen’s listings.

However, a look at the chart reveals a different story. Prices spiked above $50 per share just a week earlier before settling back down, demonstrating volatility far beyond what Forge reports.

Hiive describes its pricing methodology as follows: “Trend lines are determined by calculating a weighted average of accepted bids, bids, and listings at a point in time, with the highest weight on accepted bids, followed by bids, and then listings.”

Notice

Notice.co reports Cerebras at $30.45 per share, well below the ranges seen on Forge, Hiive, and EquityZen.

This is about 25% lower than what other platforms are reporting, and Notice’s chart shows much less volatility. Unlike Hiive or Forge, Notice does not disclose details about how its price estimates are formed.

Augment

Augment’s open order book shows an even greater disconnect. The highest institutional bid is $34.00 per share, while another bid is as low as $13.00 per share—far below what other platforms are reporting.

Augment has limited activity for Cerebras, but these numbers raise an important question: Are transactions actually closing at these prices, or are these just indications of interest?

The Key Takeaway: Price isn’t the same from one offer to another

Cerebras should be one of the easier private companies to value, given its late-stage status and proximity to an IPO. Yet, as we’ve seen, its secondary market price ranges from $13.00 to $57.00 per share depending on the platform and deal structure.

This illustrates a crucial point: private market investing isn’t just about picking the right company—it’s about knowing what makes the price right.

The Differences to Keep an Eye On

The wide range of prices for Cerebras isn’t just about different platforms—it’s also about the structure of each deal. Unlike public stocks, where shares are largely standardized, private market transactions can involve different securities, deal terms, and block sizes, all of which influence pricing.

And yet, when you look at those pricing charts from Forge, Hiive, or EquityZen, none of these details are included. While a chart may list a “last transaction” at a certain price, you have no idea what actually went into that deal. Was it a large institutional purchase with a volume discount? A structured SPV transaction with extra fees? A trade involving common stock rather than preferred shares? All of these factors shape the final transaction price, but they aren’t reflected in the charts.

Deal Structure: Direct vs. SPVs vs. Multi-Layer SPVs

Not all shares are sold the same way. Some investors purchase stock directly from a seller, while others invest through Special Purpose Vehicles (SPVs), which bundle multiple investors into a single entity.

SPVs often introduce additional fees and carry, which can push the effective price higher. Even within SPVs, there can be multi-layer structures, where early investors in the SPV get better terms than later investors. If a deal is structured this way, the share price a new investor sees may be inflated compared to the price the original seller received.

Block Size: Bigger Can Mean Cheaper

Just like in public markets, buying in bulk can lead to discounts. Large institutional investors purchasing millions of dollars in shares can negotiate lower prices, while retail investors making smaller trades often pay a premium.

Consider an analogy: If you buy 1,000 shares of a public stock, you’ll likely get the same price per share as someone buying 100,000 shares. But in the private market, block size often affects pricing because liquidity is limited. A seller with a $10 million block of shares may need to offer a discount to move the entire lot, while a $10,000 retail investment in the same company could come at a premium.

Share Class: Common vs. Preferred

Not all shares are equal. Some investors hold preferred stock, which often has stronger protections, liquidation preferences, and sometimes dividend rights. Others are buying common stock, which carries fewer rights and is typically what employees or early-stage investors hold.

Even within preferred stock, there can be multiple layers of share classes, each with different rights and privileges. A later-series preferred share, such as Series F, may have superior liquidation rights compared to earlier rounds like Series A. This means that even though two investors may be buying Cerebras shares, the actual value of those shares could be quite different.

Options and Forward Contracts

In some cases, what’s being sold isn’t even stock—it’s an option. Some secondary transactions involve sellers offloading stock options rather than actual shares, which introduces a new set of complexities. If the option is not yet vested or has an exercise price attached, it could trade at a steep discount.

Another layer of complexity comes from forward contracts, which allow investors to buy shares at a future date, often at a pre-agreed price. These deals may reflect market expectations for where the stock price is headed rather than where it is today.

If you want a deeper breakdown of how these different deal structures work, we cover them in detail in this guide on private company investment types.

The Unique Variable in the Private Market

Beyond deal structure, block size, and share class, there are factors in the private market that can influence pricing in ways that aren’t immediately measurable. Unlike public stocks, which trade at high volumes and have clear market-driven pricing, private transactions occur in a fragmented, relationship-driven environment where pricing can be influenced by circumstances unrelated to the company’s fundamentals.

Seller Urgency Can Drive Pricing

In the public market, a stock sells at whatever the best available bid is. In the private market, a seller’s personal urgency can impact pricing just as much as market conditions. If a seller needs liquidity quickly—whether due to personal financial reasons, tax obligations, or fund requirements—they may be willing to sell at a steep discount just to close a deal.

On the flip side, a seller who is in no rush and believes the company’s valuation will rise may hold out for a premium. Two identical blocks of stock could be priced very differently based on how motivated the seller is.

The Role of Existing Relationships

Another factor that can influence price is whether the buyer and seller have transacted before. If a seller has already worked with a particular fund or investor, they may be more willing to close a deal at a slightly lower price because they trust the process and know the buyer will follow through.

In contrast, when buyers and sellers are dealing with new counterparties, negotiations tend to be slower, due diligence takes longer, and deals may fall through—all of which can lead to price discrepancies across different transactions.

Fees and Transaction Costs

The structure of the transaction itself can influence the final price per share. If a deal carries high fees—whether from a broker, platform, or SPV organizer—the seller may need to discount the share price to compensate.

For example, if a buyer is paying a 10% transaction fee, the effective price of the deal is lower than what appears on the surface. Many platforms don’t explicitly show these costs in their reported share prices, making it difficult to compare one deal to another on a purely numerical basis.

The Lack of Price Transparency

In public markets, prices update in real time, and everyone can see the same bid-ask spread. In private markets, transaction data is limited, and platforms may only have access to a subset of trades. This means that while one platform may show a steep decline or rapid rise in pricing, others may not yet reflect the shift.

This issue becomes even more pronounced when internal company news or a pending funding round changes investor sentiment. If a few investors sell shares at a new, lower price, but those transactions don’t appear across multiple platforms, some secondary markets may still reflect old pricing—creating artificial pricing gaps.

Understanding the Real Price

Private market pricing is anything but straightforward. Unlike public stocks, where a single share price reflects real-time trading activity, private company valuations depend on where you look, how the deal is structured, and who is involved.

A single company, like Cerebras, can have share prices ranging from $13 to $57 across different platforms. Some of this variation comes from deal structure—SPVs, block sizes, share classes, and forward contracts all impact the final price. Other factors, like seller urgency, transaction fees, and the lack of centralized price discovery, create further discrepancies.

So how do you know if a deal is fairly priced?

Rather than relying on a single data point, investors should cross-check multiple platforms, understand the structure behind each transaction, and assess whether the price reflects the actual value of what’s being purchased.

Cold Capital helps investors navigate this fragmented market by providing deep research and direct transaction support. Our premium members gain access to detailed private market insights and deal-by-deal guidance to ensure they’re investing at the right price.

If you’re serious about investing in the private markets, join Cold Capital’s premium membership for hands-on support in evaluating opportunities.

Understanding the Real Price

Private market pricing is anything but straightforward. Unlike public stocks, where a single share price reflects real-time trading activity, private company valuations depend on where you look, how the deal is structured, and who is involved.

A single company, like Cerebras, can have share prices ranging from $13 to $57 across different platforms. Some of this variation comes from deal structure—SPVs, block sizes, share classes, and forward contracts all impact the final price. Other factors, like seller urgency, transaction fees, and the lack of centralized price discovery, create further discrepancies.

So how do you know if a deal is fairly priced?

Rather than relying on a single data point, investors should cross-check multiple platforms, understand the structure behind each transaction, and assess whether the price reflects the actual value of what’s being purchased.

Cold Capital helps investors navigate this fragmented market by providing deep research and direct transaction support. Our premium members gain access to detailed private market insights and deal-by-deal guidance to ensure they’re investing at the right price.

If you’re serious about investing in the private markets, join Cold Capital’s premium membership for hands-on support in evaluating opportunities.

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